US Election 2024

Too close to call, which is worrying. Ideally, a Harris landslide so that any claims of another stolen election look ridiculous. Polls don't suggest that outcome though.

I think Harris will just get over the line and that's when the trouble starts....
 
Hope Harris wins.

Trump is only going to put Trump first it’s alarming how popular he is
 
For Trump to win it must be on the competition. It is like Hilary losing to Trump. Hilary lost because of her and nothing anyone else did. She probably was the only democratic candidates who would have lost to Trump.
 
Havent read the rest of the conversation but I will be shocked if Trump doesn't win it.

Last election I had him at 40/1 on the night. Biggest profit I've ever made from a bet. It'll only be topped by if he wins this time.
 
The fact that anyone has ever contemplated voting for Trump now or before is just baffling.

Hopefully Harris will take it but wouldn’t surprise me if Trump wins again.
 
I would be shocked if Trump wins. Polls remain for Harris to win. Individuals who have predicted the previous outcomes correctly, predict a Harris win.
 
You would hope the pollsters have learnt from the mistakes they made in 2016 with Trump to update their forecasts accordingly.

As always it comes down to how a few states that could go either way.

A huge number of Trump or Harris voters are contained in states that are always going to vote 1 way it's mad how it can all come down to how a couple of states vote.
 
one pod cast said it was reminiscent of Reagan vs Carter, where the polls got it wrong, they forgot to poll, or didn't poll the "working" people in the suburbs
 
I think last time they massively under estimated the number of secret republicans. Those who opinion polls weren’t capturing because they didn’t interact with the polls.

The way social media harvests our data now means pollsters can get a much better impression of who you will vote for.
 
The way social media harvests our data now means pollsters can get a much better impression of who you will vote for.
I wouldn't trust that.

They've got it more wrong in newer times than ever before.
 
I'm not yet but will do when I get home. First results due on about 1 aren't they?
 
Harris 2/1 now which is the biggest she's been during the campaign. Trump 2/5. Early signs are leaving towards Trump in the betting markets.
 
Doesn’t look that promising right now for Harris.

You have to laugh that the American people could be allowing Trump in for a second time!

Let’s see if he ends the war in Ukraine in one day as promised.
 
It really does baffle me that people can vote for that guy but they do and that's how democracy works.
 
Well in such a huge country there is going to be a good percentage of wronguns who share Trump’s views and so will vote for him.

Then there is the portion of them who probably think Harris isn’t strong enough to deal with the complex issues happening in the world at the moment. So by default Trump will be getting a lot of those votes as well.

It’s baffling he keeps getting into power but after he got in the first time, nothing surprises me about how the American people vote.
 
God bless "merica"

vote in a racist, fraud, criminal and sexist to run the country, that place is nuts.

World is goig to be a crazy place, old Putin must be pissing his pants

he'll probably change the constitution so he can run again too :eek:
 
It won't get much better here now people like Farage will be emboldened to go even harder with their divisive tactics because it's what puts money in their pocket.

Labour has got to deliver results for working class people to keep them away from populists.

Ukraine must be devastated by this news.

If Trump really was the man he claims to be he'd be able to get Putin to retreat to behind his borders and surrender but he won't he'll force Ukraine to give up land as part of a peace deal which will come with very little financial support for rebuilding their country.
 
This is the biggest problem with the Democrats. They abuse or look down on anyone who does not support them. There is a huge gap now between the general public and the elite. The fact that someone like Trump can beat the Democrat's candidate twice now with all the shite hanging on him also says a lot about the Democratic Party too. With the Executive, Senate, Congress and the SC in their hands, this could be death of democracy in the USA.
 
The democrats did not address the biggest issue most people face right now which is rising prices and stagnant wages.

Trump says he’s going to fix the economy and put more money into people’s pockets which will get votes.
democrats also get tied in knots over culture war nonsense that the right wing stir up a lot of fear over.

Labour have to be looking at that and making sure that in 4 years time the average worker is feeling better off.
 
There was an interesting discussion with an American journalist yesterday about how the strength of feeling about the immigration issue took the Democrats by surprise. The official figure from Mexico during the last four years is circa 10 million and privately admitted to be nearer 12. It was of course Harris who was in charge of this and she/they thought that an open doors policy would impress the Hispanic community already in the US and incline them to vote Democrat next time. What they hadn't foreseen is that of course the ten/twelve million immigrants would be after the same jobs as the existing Hispanic populace which of course made jobs harder to find and drove wages down.
Then of course Harris was unexpectedly propelled to being the Democrat candidate at the last minute and the existing Hispanic population would not vote for her, hence Trumps unbelievable figures amongst their community.
 
There were all sorts of things at play here.

They apparently lost a lot of votes from Muslim voters due to their support of Israel.

They had to deal with rampant inflation but also obvious profiteering from companies off the back of it where inflation was used as an excuse to raise prices and increase profit margins in a lot of basic living requirements.

Tories were hit with the same thing here a cost of living crisis fuelled by inflation is going to make any government very unpopular as they'll be blamed for it.

What the democrats were unable to do is pin the blame on what they inherited and get out a clear message that they'd got it under control and things were going to get better. That is what most people really care about currently the rest of it is just noise.
 
What the democrats were unable to do is pin the blame on what they inherited and get out a clear message that they'd got it under control and things were going to get better. That is what most people really care about currently the rest of it is just noise.
The aforementioned journalist also covered the idea that it was well known [within political circles] that Harris was not the sharpest tool in the box' and not good on the hustings, but they had to make do with her because of the circumstances of her selection [a lot of anger is being aimed at Biden and wife within the party for leaving them with no alternative, but to go with her].
The campaign team thought that it would be the best strategy to go with the 'I'm not Trump' slant coupled with the 'first black female president' slant. This meant they did not concentrate on the things that actually meant things to people, namely the economy and immigration, whilst Donald was banging home the message about knowing how bad things had been for the 'ordinary worker' and promising to fix things.
Another point made was that this will probably put an end to using identity politics as an attack dog for a while, as it obviously backfired big time.
 
I think with the border, the major problem for all Americans, including teh hispanics etc, its the drugs comming over and getting into their childrend hands.

It's not just as simple as taking jobs.

The reason I thought this would happen, as I said I listened to many pod casts so more or less knew, the polls etc forgot about the rural communites, made mainly of blue collar white men who have many issues with, ecconomy, jobs, immigration and also to be honest here, have a problem with women and race.
 

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