The race to make top four 2023/24 edition

Is it time to get the Shhhh thread going.

Tottenham losing 1-0 at HT.
 
Good day for us I would say. I think Spurs are the real challenge for top four out of them and Villa.

I think ultimately Villa may well slip away but Spurs will be there or there abouts.
 
I think they're both going to be there at the end, but so will we. I can't call the fourth place right now.
 
Don’t fancy us to catch either to be honest.

Need to win the next two and hopefully nibble into that lead a bit.

Said it earlier this season about Neto so many teams will be sniffing around him this summer if he stays fit.
 
I’d honestly be shocked if we don’t finish above Spurs they’re a team that already look dead on their feet. Whilst we look a team finding form.

Teams know how to play Spurs now.
 
I think Spurs will 100% finish above Villa. They are an odd bunch like we are but have the quality to beat anybody. I would like to think we will finish 4th and then Spurs in 5th.
 
Where spurs finish will come down to their hard period in April-May when they play: Newcastle[a], City[h], Arsenal[h], Liverpool[a]

That's a hard run of fixtures. If they get off to a bad start at Newcastle they may lose them all.
 
Still a long road ahead for us in this chase and despite this great run there's still a big gap to close up with 13 games still to play.

Utd need to be getting 2 points per game to reach 70 points which I'd say is the likely total for top 4 this season, doesn't leave us with much wiggle room.

We still have to play all of the top 3 and in those games we're probably going to need to beat 1 of them to make top 4.
 
Villa and Tottenham also have them all to play though plus eachother which comes up soon.

In Tottenhams 7 games this year. They've won 3. Burnley 1-0. Brentford 3-2 where they were clinging on desperately. Brighton 2-1 thanks to a 97th minute goal.

They don't look convincing at all currently and like they can drop points to anyone.
 
You have to add an extra point to the gaps because of the goal difference, ours is so poor. Although crack open the cans because it's finally a positive number again :cool:

Spurs lack depth but they also don't have many games to play as they're out of both cups and no European football.

We need Villa to make good progress in Europe for 2 reasons. 1) it's a distraction to the league and 2) it will help with potentially making 5th spot a CL spot.
 
jsp said:
You have to add an extra point to the gaps because of the goal difference, ours is so poor. Although crack open the cans because it's finally a positive number again :cool:

Spurs lack depth but they also don't have many games to play as they're out of both cups and no European football.

We need Villa to make good progress in Europe for 2 reasons. 1) it's a distraction to the league and 2) it will help with potentially making 5th spot a CL spot.
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It's hardly anything to shout about - if the fourth place was to come down to goal difference we can forget about it.
 
jsp said:
You have to add an extra point to the gaps because of the goal difference, ours is so poor. Although crack open the cans because it's finally a positive number again :cool:

Spurs lack depth but they also don't have many games to play as they're out of both cups and no European football.

We need Villa to make good progress in Europe for 2 reasons. 1) it's a distraction to the league and 2) it will help with potentially making 5th spot a CL spot.
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England are so far ahead in 2nd place for the 2 extra CL spots that all the English teams would have to go out this phase of European matches for that to change, and as much as I'd love to see City crashing and burning it just ain't happening.
 
Justin Cider said:
England are so far ahead in 2nd place for the 2 extra CL spots that all the English teams would have to go out this phase of European matches for that to change, and as much as I'd love to see City crashing and burning it just ain't happening.
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England are currently 3rd pretty much neck and neck with Germany.

Italy 1st
Germany 2nd
England 3rd
Spain 4th
 
Jayc1860 said:
It's hardly anything to shout about - if the fourth place was to come down to goal difference we can forget about it.
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I thought the sarcasm in my post was implied but in a season of so many lows you have to enjoy the highs.
 
jsp said:
England are currently 3rd pretty much neck and neck with Germany.

Italy 1st
Germany 2nd
England 3rd
Spain 4th
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Must've been the Opta prediction graphic I saw the other day. :rolleyes:

England will be fine though, as I fully expect all three trophies to end up in Blighty.
 
jsp said:
England are currently 3rd pretty much neck and neck with Germany.

Italy 1st
Germany 2nd
England 3rd
Spain 4th
Click to expand...

Indeed the bonus position is based on yearly performance not the standard 5 yr rolling coefficient rankings. It's as below currently. Germany overtook us with last weeks wins.

1Italy7/714.714
2Germany6/713.928
3England6/813.875
4Spain6/812.937
5France6/612.250

Unfortunately/Thankfully you'd expect City and Liverpool to put us in a good position.
 
You’d expect Brighton, Liverpool and West Ham to go quite far in the Europa League and similarly with Villa in the Conference League.
 
IDFD said:
Indeed the bonus position is based on yearly performance not the standard 5 yr rolling coefficient rankings. It's as below currently. Germany overtook us with last weeks wins.

1Italy7/714.714
2Germany6/713.928
3England6/813.875
4Spain6/812.937
5France6/612.250

Unfortunately/Thankfully you'd expect City and Liverpool to put us in a good position.
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Think Arsenal should get through at least to the quarter finals, I reckon they've got a genuine shot at winning it this year as the teams outside the Prem are not strong this year in the champions league. Inter Milan/Real Madrid look to be the best of the rest from what I've seen.

If the 6 remaining sides can all get to through to the quarters we should end up in the top 2 spots.

So having teams in these extra playoff rounds actually helps your scores. Surely that needs looking at?
 
jsp said:
Think Arsenal should get through at least to the quarter finals, I reckon they've got a genuine shot at winning it this year as the teams outside the Prem are not strong this year in the champions league. Inter Milan/Real Madrid look to be the best of the rest from what I've seen.

If the 6 remaining sides can all get to through to the quarters we should end up in the top 2 spots.

So having teams in these extra playoff rounds actually helps your scores. Surely that needs looking at?
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Sssshhhh
 
When will we know for sure if 5th is up for CL?

Still can't see us making it to 4th, but 5th is doable.
 
Mr C said:
When will we know for sure if 5th is up for CL?

Still can't see us making it to 4th, but 5th is doable.
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Potentially we won't know until after the end of the season depending on who makes the finals of the 3 competitions.

It's a constantly moving set of numbers with every round of fixtures but I'd say you'll likely know by the semi finals who's got the spots.
 
Can't understand why Italy are clear at the top and by quite some distance, what have their clubs won compared to English and Spanish sides in the last 5 years, some dodgy counting going on methinks.

They've only had one losing finalists in the Champions League, and two losing finalists in the Europa League in the last 5 years.

Time for a recount.
 
Justin Cider said:
Can't understand why Italy are clear at the top and by quite some distance, what have their clubs won compared to English and Spanish sides in the last 5 years, some dodgy counting going on methinks.

They've only had one losing finalists in the Champions League, and two losing finalists in the Europa League in the last 5 years.

Time for a recount.
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The bonus places are determined by this years performance ONLY the 5 year rolling cycle doesn't apply.
 
jsp said:
The bonus places are determined by this years performance ONLY the 5 year rolling cycle doesn't apply.
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That's totally bonkers. I would say more but I fear the European branch of Interpol will be on my case.
 
Justin Cider said:
That's totally bonkers. I would say more but I fear the European branch of Interpol will be on my case.
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Making the competition even bigger is bonkers but that's football.

Your overall co-efficient that determines the number of spots you get each season will still be assessed over 5 year cycles but the two bonus spots for CL are judged over 1 year which I think is fair as they are rewards for current performance not historic.

What hurts England and Spain this year is we both have 8 teams in europe due to West Ham and Sevilla winning European trophies but not qualifying through league position. But both nations have lost 2 teams in the group stages which means the points we accumulate now are worth less than points accumulated by Italy/Germany. The total points Spain/England earn is divided by 8 whereas Italy/Germany only have their points total divided by 7.

We basically need a load of Italian and Germany teams to drop out in the play off rounds and the current round of 16 in Champions League.
 
jsp said:
Making the competition even bigger is bonkers but that's football.

Your overall co-efficient that determines the number of spots you get each season will still be assessed over 5 year cycles but the two bonus spots for CL are judged over 1 year which I think is fair as they are rewards for current performance not historic.

What hurts England and Spain this year is we both have 8 teams in europe due to West Ham and Sevilla winning European trophies but not qualifying through league position. But both nations have lost 2 teams in the group stages which means the points we accumulate now are worth less than points accumulated by Italy/Germany. The total points Spain/England earn is divided by 8 whereas Italy/Germany only have their points total divided by 7.

We basically need a load of Italian and Germany teams to drop out in the play off rounds and the current round of 16 in Champions League.
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Thanks for the explanation, still think it's wrong though. Doubt anybody is catching Italy or it's even possible.
 
Justin Cider said:
Thanks for the explanation, still think it's wrong though. Doubt anybody is catching Italy or it's even possible.
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I don't really like the new format anyway it seems like games for the sake of games. If you are going to have two bonus spots then they need to be up for grabs every year so 1 year cycle I think makes sense.

Yeah they're looking in good shape but I reckon it could change quickly if all your teams suddenly crash out you stop accumulating points. I assume maths wizzes have built models to work out what will need to happen for Italy to lose 1 of those spots.

Seems odd that you get points for these extra knockout games in europa/conference league though as the reason you play those games is because you either failed to win your group or finished 3rd and dropped down. To me this round should earn nil points for wins/progress.

I'm all for just going back to straight knockouts in europe 2 legs winner takes all bit of seeding in the earlier rounds but after that a complete free for all.
 
jsp said:
I don't really like the new format anyway it seems like games for the sake of games. If you are going to have two bonus spots then they need to be up for grabs every year so 1 year cycle I think makes sense.

Yeah they're looking in good shape but I reckon it could change quickly if all your teams suddenly crash out you stop accumulating points. I assume maths wizzes have built models to work out what will need to happen for Italy to lose 1 of those spots.

Seems odd that you get points for these extra knockout games in europa/conference league though as the reason you play those games is because you either failed to win your group or finished 3rd and dropped down. To me this round should earn nil points for wins/progress.

I'm all for just going back to straight knockouts in europe 2 legs winner takes all bit of seeding in the earlier rounds but after that a complete free for all.
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I preferred it when there were two group stages but maybe that's just me, and if we were to go back to straight knockout we'd have the European Super League up and running before you could say "those bloody Italians are on the fiddle again"

The Champions League as it is, is on the big clubs, with no doubt Manchester United near the front calling the shots, and not UEFA who more and more like FIFA are not big/strong enough to be the decision makes in modern day football.
 
Justin Cider said:
I preferred it when there were two group stages but maybe that's just me, and if we were to go back to straight knockout we'd have the European Super League up and running before you could say "those bloody Italians are on the fiddle again"

The Champions League as it is, is on the big clubs, with no doubt Manchester United near the front calling the shots, and not UEFA who more and more like FIFA are not big/strong enough to be the decision makes in modern day football.
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I agree it'll never go back to straight knockout as there's not enough guaranteed money in that setup for the big teams who will say they deserve it as they're the ones bringing the audience.

I think the current setup is about right all I'd ditch is the 3rd placed group sides dropping down levels, to me that's a waste of time. These extra rounds in Europa/Conference League which only exist to accommodate these extra teams.

The group stages have gone a bit stale but that's generally because they're pretty predictable with the way the seedings work and the gap between the haves and the have nots has just got bigger and bigger over the last 20 years. Teams like City probably rest players in European group stage games more than they do in league games now.

Anyway good results last night no points for Spain or Germany as both their sides failed to win.
 
jsp said:
I agree it'll never go back to straight knockout as there's not enough guaranteed money in that setup for the big teams who will say they deserve it as they're the ones bringing the audience.

I think the current setup is about right all I'd ditch is the 3rd placed group sides dropping down levels, to me that's a waste of time. These extra rounds in Europa/Conference League which only exist to accommodate these extra teams.

The group stages have gone a bit stale but that's generally because they're pretty predictable with the way the seedings work and the gap between the haves and the have nots has just got bigger and bigger over the last 20 years. Teams like City probably rest players in European group stage games more than they do in league games now.

Anyway good results last night no points for Spain or Germany as both their sides failed to win.
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It used to be trying to explain the rules of cricket was the hardest thing when somebody showed a passing interest(usually after a few pints in the pub), but now it's trying to explain why the team that finished 4th in Serie 'A' the previous season, was playing a team from the Premier League who finished 3rd the previous season are meeting in the Champions League.

It needs a rebrand, I don't know something like the European Cup might work ....

The third team dropping down is a nonsense(but that will have been driven by the cubs), but if they do the best 3rd place teams continues in the Champions League it would not only give the teams a 2nd chance it would make the groups more interesting as every match would have something hanging on it ....

The recent AFCoN was insane because of the best 3rd place teams having a chance to progress, the eventual winners the Ivory Coast finished 3rd in their group and even managed to get beat 4-0 along the way, but nobody can say they didn't deserve to win it, well maybe a few million Nigerians ....

And on seeding, I think they should do away with it all together, or just seed clubs who were Champions in their respective Leagues the season before to keep them apart in the early phases.

As I've said Spurs and Villa will be fine if they finish 5th,
 

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